Ma's Visit to Mainland China Helping Lai's Presidential Campaign？
By Yang Ying-chao
United Daily News, March 28, 2023
Recent commentaries in Taiwan on former President Ma Ying-jeou’s visit to mainland China to pay respects to his ancestors are quite polarized. On one side those who support peaceful cross-strait relations are praising him almost unanimously. On the other hand, those who want to leverage cross-strait tensions are excited about this opportunity to attack Mr. Ma for catering to Beijing by sacrificing Taiwan’s sovereignty.
However, if we take a deeper look at Mr. Ma’s past work style and the current situation, those who praise him for lowering cross-strait tensions and contributing to peace, and even expecting his trip will bring positive impact on the Kuomintang’s (KMT) performance in the 2024 presidential and legislative elections, should probably criticize Mr. Ma. Those who worry that his mainland visit offsets the glamour of President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit stops in the United States should perhaps be glad that he has accidently boosted the campaign morale of Vice President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairman Lai Ching-te. This is because Mr. Ma’s visit will give Taiwan a brief sense of peace and make the people feel that the occurrence of war is far away. It in turn will help the DPP administration maintain a façade of stability and, consequently, will not help the KMT presidential candidate.
First, Mr. Ma’s past decision-making style has been overcautious and putting himself above everything else. This is not Mr. Ma’s problem alone since the mainland policy has been the president’s prerogative since the first presidential election by popular vote. The difference is that the DPP handles the China affairs with the logic of realism in international relations and is easier to understand for the public, yet the KMT’s policy towards mainland China is mixed with cultural identity and internal calculations that is harder to explain.
It would have been easier if Mr. Ma during his tenure had dedicated more energy to develop Chinese studies in education. However, Mr. Ma went along with the de-Sinicization movement in public education, making the people lose interest in Chinese culture and unable to understand the KMT’s mainland policy. This has caused the trend of closer cross-strait relations, the pride of Mr. Ma’s eight-year presidency, to be easily overturned by incumbent President Tsai. The pessimistic trend of cross-strait relations has not encountered much resistance, indicating the foundation of cross-strait ties laid in the past was not rock-solid.
If Mr. Ma had been aware of this phenomenon and had allowed the KMT to get involved in the trip’s preliminary stage, then perhaps there would have been room for better cooperation. However, judging from his mainland trip delegation and the timeframe when media revealed KMT Chairman Eric Chu knew about the trip, that is apparently not the case. Therefore, it is safe to say that Ma’s visit to mainland China has nothing to do with the KMT’s political agenda. One report even says that a certain confidant of Ma gave the KMT guidelines before Ma’s departure to the mainland.
Second, Mr. Ma’s cautiousness prevents him from going to Beijing. From the experience of past exchanges between the KMT and the Communist Party, by not going to Beijing the chances of a second Ma-Xi meeting is reduced significantly. If he doesn’t want to meet with the leader of Communist China on this trip, Mr. Ma may not be able to meet with top party leadership in each province he is going to visit. How would this trip and the meeting between Lien Chan and Hu Jintao in 2005 compare? The five points of consensus reached during the Lien-Hu meeting have been included in the KMT party platform. What about the historic significance or height of Mr. Ma’s visit this time?
Due to Mr. Ma’s lack of understanding of Taiwanese public opinion and the distance between the KMT and DPP, Mr. Ma’s effort in designing the trip probably kept more in mind the people on the mainland. But what about the influence of Mr. Ma’s trip on the people of Taiwan? This is certainly one way to look at the trip for people concerned with the cross-strait peaceful development.
In contrast, the recent changes in opinion polls seem to indicate the unintended boost of Mr. Ma’s trip to Vice President Lai. The visit to Taiwan by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the U.S. House of Representatives and the subsequent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military exercises made the people of Taiwan realize the imminent threat of war. It helped the KMT win the local elections in November and forced Mr. Lai to soften his rhetoric to “maintain peace to protect Taiwan.” Even the DPP administration came to emphasize cross-strait conciliation. The KMT needs to follow up on the election victory and press home the elections next year is a choice between peace and war.
However, as the atmosphere of cross-strait relations changes, the people of Taiwan are starting to forget the anxiety of missiles flying over their heads. No matter how many problems erupt in foreign relations, public safety, energy supply, egg shortages and price hikes, the opinion polls miraculously continue to be in favor of the DPP and its presidential candidate. It seems to suggest that the people don’t think a Lai presidency will trigger a war with the mainland.
Mr. Ma chose to visit mainland China at a time when the presidential elections are going into high gear. The mainland is likely to take advantage of the situation and adopt a two-pronged strategy. Originally, the people of Taiwan were going to see the heavy-handed approach of China when president Tsai transited through the United States. Yet after Mr. Ma’s trip came into the picture, the people of Taiwan would probably be less worried about the military threat in the Taiwan Strait. This is something about which the outside world should be concerned.
In conclusion, the foremost concern of the world should be the influence of former President Ma’s trip on the public opinion in Taiwan. The forces supporting peaceful cross-strait relations anticipate Mr. Ma to have a better performance on this trip. However, from past experience, we cannot be over-optimistic.
The author is associate professor at the General Education Center of Ming Chuan University.